The National People’s Congress in its March 2026 session approved China’s 15th Five Year Plan, spanning 2026-2030. However, this plan acts in great continuity with the 14th, and even the 13th Plan; and integrate greatly the “guidance” provided by the central committee of the communist party last October.
The Plan still has targets, such as for GDP growth, growth in spending on research and development, air pollution, etc. But most of these targets are indicative. Only 1/3 of the indicators in the table of key indicators are mandatory. Breaking the indicators down into the categories suggests a growing emphasis on innovation and people’s livelihoods, and somewhat less focus on the environment. Notably, a new indicator of the carbon intensity of the economy was introduced in the 15th plan, replacing an indicator of energy intensity. This indicator links well to the government’s “twin carbon” goal: peaking before 2030, and net zero by 2060.
Another evolution visible is the lack of GDP growth, which is no longer a real target since the last plan. The plan merely mentions that growth should be maintained “within a reasonable range” and emphasises a policy shift away from simply growth to what the authorities now dub “High Quality Development.” This last aspect represents the overarching objective of the Plan and is defined as being innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared. This concept is embedded in the “New Development Philosophy or Paradigm, which includes Supply-side structural reforms, the New Quality Productive Forces, Dual Circulation, Common Prosperity, and Ecological Civilisation, elements that were included over time.
Overall, the plan shows a strong emphasis on innovation and technology, reduced emphasis on reform and opening (and market development), and still limited attention to « people first » and common prosperity. The Plan also suggests a stronger emphasis on basic research and a stronger link between technological innovation and growth. The link is foremost the “Modern Industrial System,” a new term to the 5-year Plan, but which had been circulating for some time. The greater adoption of technology and a more unified market should, in the Plan’s philosophy, lead to higher productivity. Labour productivity is, as in the past plans, included as a key indicator. “Total factor productivity,” a concept that refers to the overall efficiency of resource use in a society, is considered a key objective, and has been mentioned several times by Xi Jinping in his speeches.